1. The overall scale and growth trend of the industry
 

1. The market size continues to expand
 

In 2023, the market size of China's CNC machine tools has reached 409 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.75% from 2019 to 2023, and is expected to increase to 432.5 billion yuan in 2024. Among them, as a high-end representative, the market size of five-axis linkage machine tools has increased from 6.29 billion yuan in 2019 to 11.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.52%, and is expected to exceed 12 billion yuan in 2024.
 

Drivers: policy support (such as "Made in China 2025"), manufacturing upgrading needs (automobiles, aerospace, etc.), equipment renewal cycle (machine tool life 5-10 years).
 

2. Changes in market segment structure
 

High-end trend: The proportion of CNC machine tools continues to increase, and the market share is expected to exceed 50% in 2025; Among the five-axis linkage machine tools, vertical machining centers account for 77.7%.
 

The share of traditional machine tools has declined: the market share of ordinary machine tools has been gradually replaced, and special processing machine tools (such as lasers and EDM) have increased significantly due to aerospace demand.
 

2. Technological development and localization process

1. Core technology breakthroughs
 

Domestic CNC systems (such as Huazhong CNC) are close to the international level in terms of function and stability, but high-end CNC systems still rely on imports (Fanuc in Japan and Siemens in Germany account for more than 60%).
 

The localization rate of key functional components (servo motors and guide rails) has increased, but precision components such as lead screws and bearings are still mainly imported.
 

2. Intelligence and digital transformation
 

Intelligent machine tools combine AI and Internet of Things technology to achieve remote monitoring and predictive maintenance, becoming a new growth point in the industry. The market size is expected to reach tens of billions of yuan in 2025, but there are still technological gaps (such as sensor technology).
 

3. Market competition pattern

1. The stratification of enterprises is obvious
 

The first camp: foreign-funded companies (such as Siemens in Germany and Fanuc in Japan) dominate the high-end market.
 

The second camp: domestic leading enterprises (such as Kede CNC, Haitian Precision, and Genesis) have accelerated their technological catch-up, with Kede CNC's revenue increasing by 30.32% year-on-year in 2023, and Neway CNC's exports covering more than 50 countries.
 

The third camp: small and medium-sized private enterprises are concentrated in the low-end market, and the industry concentration is gradually increasing (the market share of the top ten enterprises exceeds 50%).
 

2. Regional distribution characteristics
 

The eastern coast (market share of more than 50%) relies on the advantages of industrial clusters, while the central region (such as Wuhan and Zhengzhou) and the west (policy support) have become emerging growth poles.
 

Fourth, policy and market demand driven

1. Increased policy support
 

The state lists high-end CNC machine tools as "industrial machine tools", and policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Intelligent Manufacturing" clearly require increasing the numerical control rate of key processes to more than 75%. The joint document of the four departments focuses on supporting the research and development of five-axis CNC machine tools.
 

2. Downstream demand is diversified
 

Automobile manufacturing: New energy vehicles drive the demand for high-precision processing.
 

Aerospace: Complex parts are machined with 5-axis linkage.
 

Consumer electronics and 5G: Demand for miniaturized and precision processing equipment is growing.
 

5. Challenges and prospects

1. Main challenges
 

Core components rely on imports (such as CNC systems and lead screws), which restricts the localization process.
 

The talent gap is prominent, and compound technical talents are needed to support intelligent transformation.
 

2. Future prospects
 

Market size: It is expected that the market size of CNC machine tools will exceed 500 billion yuan in 2025, and the average annual growth rate of five-axis linkage machine tools will remain above 15%.
 

Domestic substitution: The localization rate of the high-end market is expected to increase from 6% to 10%-15%, and enterprises such as Kede CNC may become the main force of import substitution.
 

Technology trend: intelligence, modularization, and greening (energy conservation and environmental protection) will become the main direction.
 

summary

In 2025, China's machine tool industry will show three major characteristics: high-end acceleration, localization breakthrough, and deepening intelligence. Driven by policy support and market demand, leading enterprises are expected to achieve technological leaps in the field of five-axis linkage and intelligent CNC, but core component dependence and talent reserve are still key bottlenecks. The industry needs to further strengthen the coordination of the industrial chain and promote the transformation from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing power".